2026-10-10 — The hold-off that expired

An Australian company called Firmus had spent months preparing the biggest Australian stock market debut in three decades, selling shares in the data centres it is building to run NVIDIA chips on Tasmanian hydro power. On Friday it gave up: buyers would not pay, the offer price had already been cut by a quarter, and after about forty-eight hours of taking orders the company withdrew the listing and said it would look for private money instead. It is the first time this map has watched an AI infrastructure company fail to get public — and, oddly, it is the reason Firmus is now on the map at all. The atlas had deliberately kept it off, on the rule that you should not hand-write a valuation for a company that is about to have a real one. That rule only holds while the listing is real. The same day, a fifteen-month-old lab nobody had heard of a month ago raised $870M at $7.5B.

Today in AI

• Firmus pulled its A$5.9bn ASX float after about 48 hours of bookbuilding, having already cut the offer from A$11 to A$8.25, with investors balking at roughly $30B of planned debt and at only about 5% of its sold capacity being built and running — ABC News link
• TypeSafe AI raised about $870M at a $7.5B valuation led by a16z, 24 days after launching Jev, a model that returns typed answers with probabilities instead of writing text — Bloomberg via Techmeme
• NVIDIA committed $1B over five years to US research capacity in quantum computing, healthcare and energy security, under the "super intelligence" branding the White House now prefers — The Register via Techmeme
• A review of 857 model releases from nine Chinese AI labs since 2021 found just 3.6% came with any safety results from the developer, and only 1.1% had them at launch — SemiAnalysis via Techmeme
• OpenAI said it dismissed three researchers for mishandling sensitive information rather than for raising safety concerns, disputing the account that had circulated — CNBC via Techmeme
• The Chinese developer of the ARTEX agent closed its source code after CrowdStrike reported the tool had been used to break into South Korean banks — Reuters via Techmeme
• Mark Zuckerberg pushed Muse out over internal safety objections after watching the rival agent from Instinct gain users, according to people familiar with the decision — New York Times via Techmeme

Marks moved

Two entities were added. Firmus at $10,500M reported — the floor of the company's own "more than $10.5B" post-money on the $2B strategic equity round of 2026-08-07, with follow-on money from Coatue and NVIDIA and new money from Blackstone funds and Jane Street; the release itself does not state the figure, Bloomberg and Capital Brief do. And TypeSafe AI at $7,500M reported on the $870M Series A led by a16z with Sequoia and DCVC following (SiliconANGLE, Unite.AI).

Physical Intelligence kept its $5,600M and had its date corrected, which is its own kind of fix. The mark was dated 2026-03-27 — the day Bloomberg reported talks at above $11B — on a source note with no link at all. The $5.6B is actually the $600M Series B of 2025-11-20, so the fact is now dated to the round it came from and renders as the nearly-year-old number it is. A wrong citation is a defect even when the figure is right.

Last night's ticker cron also cleared both hand seeds the 10-09 pass left: Hut 8 $11,000M → $10,387M (seed 6% high) and Boost Run $960M → $1,048M (seed 8% low). Both far better than the Akamai seed's 26% error, and the difference is method — these were read off a quoted market cap, Akamai's was derived from a warrant percentage.

New edges

• nvidia —invests_in→ firmus — NVIDIA has followed on through three successive rounds, joining at the $330M raise and investing again in the $505M April round at $5.5B and the $2B August round; its stake was reported at 7.2% going into the failed IPO. Bloomberg's own headline names it, 2026-08-07. Verified.
• firmus —builds_on→ nvidia — Project Southgate is built on NVIDIA's DSX AI Factory reference architecture, with 36,000 GPUs planned across two Tasmanian stages and a June 2026 partnership covering up to 170,000 accelerators through 2027-28. Company release, 2026-08-07. Verified.
• vercel —routes→ typesafe — Jev became the fastest-adopted model launch in Vercel AI Gateway history, reaching more than twice as many paid teams in 24 hours as any previous launch. Vercel's own blog, 2026-09-16. Verified. This edge, not the cap table, is what admitted TypeSafe: every named investor in both its rounds is a fund.

Still in talks

• Anthropic's S-1 is still not on EDGAR, twelve days after Reuters obtained the document and 131 days after the June confidential submission — no share count, price range or ticker. With the 15-day pre-roadshow rule and marketing reported to start the week of 9 November, the public filing has about two weeks to appear or the listing slips again.
• Nscale — 22 days from filing, still no price range and no final share count; the ~$35B is still an FT-reported target, not a figure in the document.
• Stripe / OpenRouter — 52 days, no close notice from either party, while relays still run "completes" over bodies saying neither company has confirmed it.
• Shield AI (26 days, no lead or size), UniPat (30 days of "set to close soon"), Mirendil (18 days, Kleiner Perkins in discussions to lead up to $1B at ~$5B), Lambda ($4B at a $14.5B pre, four days, Blackstone and Coatue reported as leads), Baseten (~$26B) and Modal ($750M at $15.75B with Accel named) — all unchanged, none closed.
• FieldAI's $700M at $10B is still a signed term sheet with no lead identified; one outlet calls it closed but is repeating the Business Insider original.
• NVIDIA / Hugging Face — five and a half weeks on, NVIDIA still has not decided whether the deal is notifiable in Europe.

Leads I could not verify

• TypeSafe's $7.5B rests on search corroboration only. The company's own post discloses the amount and valuation in a footnote, but no release surfaced with the figure in its title, and typesafe.ai is egress-blocked here. A human should read it. Its speed and cost claims (193x faster, 444x cheaper) are self-reported benchmarks, and it puts its own Fortune 500 penetration at ~33% where a16z's announcement says ~25%.
• Firmus's $10.5B is a floor, not a published post-money — the company release announces the round without the figure. Upgrade if an exact number appears. Watch too for the private round it now says it will raise: against a $30.6B IPO ask that buyers refused, it could price below the August mark.
• Physical Intelligence may be two rounds stale and the evidence is in a filing nobody here can read. Trackers say corporate filings from May 2026 authorised about $1.05B of Series C stock at $11–11.2B, and one lists it as closed on 2026-05-21. An authorisation in a charter amendment is not a priced round and the amount authorised is not the amount sold, so nothing was carried — but this is the Korrun lesson pointing at a Delaware filing. Separately, the November 2025 round is reported led by Alphabet's CapitalG, which would land an alphabet —invests_in→ pi edge; every source naming CapitalG is a tracker and one outlier credits a16z and Thrive instead, so no edge was added.
• www.sec.gov is still blocked (CONNECT 403 on EDGAR's browse endpoint), so the Anthropic and Nscale filing checks are coverage-derived rather than read.
• A grouped watchlist query silently dropped its tail. One search covering Mirendil, Etched and 1X returned Mirendil only and said so. Etched, 1X, Cohere/Aleph Alpha, Agility Robotics, DeepSeek's second round, GMI Cloud, Isomorphic Labs, Solidigm and Arena were not re-searched this pass; all were unchanged on 10-08 or 10-09.
• A seventh summary-layer failure mode: currency. Startup Daily rendered the Firmus round as "$2.85 billion at a whopping $15B valuation" (both A$, for US$2bn at US$10.5bn) and BigGo gave TypeSafe's round as "¥87 Billion ... ¥1.2 Trillion". Neither is wrong; both read as a different deal unless you check the unit.
• One unconfirmed follow-on: a single outlet reports early investor interest in a further TypeSafe round of more than $1B above $10B.

Further reading: TLDR AI · The Rundown · Techmeme

build/validate.py: 205 entities, 385 relations — 0 errors, 0 warnings. Committed as Data pass 2026-10-10: Firmus added at $10.5B after its ASX IPO was pulled; TypeSafe AI added at $7.5B; Physical Intelligence re-dated to its actual round.